Business Process Trends: Predicting Future Trends in the Business ...

The popular saying - "History repeats itself" - is quite true and if its underlying meaning is well understood, it can be effectively used for predicting future trends of almost all types of industries including the business process outsourcing industry.

Anyone who wants to do that just needs to factor in the annual growth rates of the industry for the past 5 to 10 years, provide appropriate weight to key differential elements such as human resources and technology and finally apply some basic math to arrive at approximate projections of the future. This is exactly what we intend to do in the following paragraphs.

For achieving the objectives described above, i.e. the future trends of the offshore outsourcing industry in India; we will use the research report, published jointly by NASSCOM and Deloitte. The report provides all the statistics that we need, such as the contribution of IT, ITES and BPO industries to the GDP of India, compounded annual growth rates (CAGR) of these industries for the last five years, and their contribution to the foreign exchange reserves of the country.

However, before we actually start the calculations, we would like to make it clear that our results (projections) will be based on data provided in the report. Although errors in the report are highly unlikely since both NASSCOM and Deloitte are reputed organization, we cannot guarantee 100% accuracy of statistical data and information given in the report.

As per the report, the IT, ITES and BPO India industries together contributed around 1.2% to GDP of India during the year 1999-2000. This increased to 4.8% during the year 2005-2006, implying that these industries witnessed growth at a CAGR of 28% over the last five years.

Now this rate can also be used for predicting the future trends in the above industries, but we will not use this rate because we believe that many new differential factors have emerged over the last few years. These new elements have added to the dynamics of the outsourcing industry and it is likely that they will impact the growth rates in the near future.

For making the most appropriate projections about the IT, ITES and call center India industries, we have added appropriate weights of 5% to all the prominent emerging elements such as increasing outsourcing demand, infrastructure upgrades, expertise, and technology deployments.

Using basic math, we are thus able to predict that the CAGR of the above industries, taken together, will be around 33%. This is however based on the assumption that all other factors such as social, political, economical and the immediate business environment will not deviate too much in the near future.

The above projections are quite useful, both for outsourcing service providers and businesses that opt for outsourcing. Based on the projections, providers can initiate new plans for grabbing a larger share of the outsourcing pie whereas client businesses will benefit because they will know exactly the place where cost-effective outsourcing services are available. All this bodes well for the future of business process outsourcing.

Business Process Outsourcing will help the company to reduce the operational cost redirecting energy directed at the competencies of the specified business. It will also assist to make effective utilization of labor,capital, technology and resources.

Source: http://bloggerchamps.blogspot.com/2012/07/predicting-future-trends-in-business.html

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